Cleve Gibbon

I’m a big fan of Peter Diamandis’s 6D framework used to describe the exponential growth and impact of emerging technologies.  It depicts how technology moves from ’emerging’ to ’emerged’.

The rate of technological change starts with digital and moves deceptively slowly under the radar until its true disruptive impact becomes clear to the few. Once established, the technology dramatically accelerates along an exponential growth path getting cheaper (demonetized), smaller (dematerialized), and accessible (democratized) to the masses. Think iPhones, 5G, the Internet, and now AI.

Singularity University

Back in May 2017, I spent a week at NASA with 30 other business and technology leaders, many of which oversee $1 billion revenue companies.  Peter Diamandis ran a series of future-forward technology lectures as part of his Singularity University program to share the collective current state, provoke discussions with divergent audiences, to change our collective thinking.  He succeeded. 

Now AI was high up on the agenda.  We had luminaries such as Ray Kurzweil sharing his predictions on the future of human-machine integration. 

6D Framework for AI

Now let’s position AI within that 6D framework.  It’s literally been 6 years since I attended Singularity University and our 2017 AI predictions are bang on target.

AI used to be costly, but now it’s more affordable. Smaller versions of huge language models focus on specific problems, and we’re seeing these models targeting web and mobile devices. And of course, everyone has access to AI now.

Every day, we humans are adapting to AI. Governments and corporates alike are navigating the challenges of ethical, responsible, and unbiased solutions as part of creating an acceptable AI code of conduct. Nobody wants an existential crisis.

And finally, talent. Augmented humans, or people comfortable with AI, have an advantage. The workforce is changing fast, especially for non-augmented individuals. Companies are proactively replacing future roles with AI solutions, both led and managed by experienced, AI-adept individuals. Nobody knows what the future talent mix will be, but it will be different.

Wrapping up, that 6D framework shows us that AI is no longer a technology of the future; it’s here now. So, what will you do with it?

Artificial Intelligence and Intelligent Automation (AiA) are connected by intelligence.  And it’s no coincidence.  

(Intelligent) Automation

The corporate ask of automation remains the same; do more with less.  Because time is money. Automation is an efficiency play to do things right. Map out the processes that people follow to get things done. Then, start automating the simple tasks to free up increasing amounts of time to do things better suited for humans.  

What we really want is for people to adopt more automation, adapt their current ways of working, to ultimately readily embrace machines as part of their everyday.  Let’s be clear, augmented humans are (going to be) more productive than non-augmented ones.  The future of work is less about (wo)man being replaced by machines, but more about augmented humans displacing non-augmented ones.  This is why workers that ignore what’s happening today do so that their risk, and will more likely end up on the wrong side of the change equation.  

Automation doesn’t create much.  It optimizes a lot.  Intelligent automation uses AI to learn how to automate repetitive and routine tasks.  

Artificial (Intelligence)

AI is the technology that enables machines to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence.  AI is an effectiveness play to do the right things. Machines run algorithms that analyze data, find patterns in it, and make predictions off it.  Today, AI makes routine predictions that need humans to make those last-mile decisions.  You must’ve terms like keeping the human in the loop. Humans still provide the necessary guardrails on decision-making and learning goals to continuously progress machines gain more and more human intelligence.  

However, machines are learning faster than humans in specific contexts.  Once trained, AI required less data, in new contexts, to make accurate predictions.  AI is accelerating toward machine intelligence.

Smarter Children

So, what if as a parent you knew that your child was going to be so much smarter than you ever could be? Not only that but your child’s intelligence could potentially periodically double ad infinitum.   What would you do?  And how would you do it? 

As a civilization, we have struggled to manage the human race with many amazing leaps and near-disastrous events along the way.  We are adding machines into the mix and are re-writing new rules of engagement.  I hope we do better than the Titans and Olympians, where Zeus and his siblings overthrew their parents. Humans are not Titans, and machines are not Olympians. However, we are going to have to work hard to co-exist and deftly sidestep the fall of the Titans (read as humanity)!

Over the last couple of years, the rise of AI has been insane. Most definitely within the tech and data world, but more importantly now by users. So let’s be clear, AI is out there. Accessible. Available. Always on.

Before, AI was lurking beneath the surface. Working behind the scenes supercharging the business platforms that platform businesses use to:

• Spotify; better matches listeners with artists
• Airbnb; better find the best places to stay
• Uber; better get you to where you need to be
• Netflix; better know what to watch next
• Amazon; better suggest what to buy

Because with AI we can have better business outcomes. But what accelerated things so dramatically, and so publicly. Well, the entire contents of the internet were compressed into an accessible, available, always-on service that you can have a conversation with it. We call this ChatGPT and it marks the arrival of AI for the masses. The game has changed forever.

So, over the last couple of years I’ve been grappling with the true disruptive impact AI will have on business. And in April 2023 I graduated from Oxford University with a Diploma in AI for Business. The timing could not have been better. I have so much to be thankful for and people to thank.

So I’m going to do just that by gently unpacking AI. I’m going to cut through the hype, and add back some context, and have some fun with the rise of AI! But to kick off the thanks, first to the wicked smart AI for Business professors at Oxford University, and most importantly to my wife for giving me to space to grow. Thank you all!

We all know innovation is important. But in uncertain economic times, innovation becomes urgent. Innovation is a differentiator tied to future growth and long-term value creation.  There is no faking it here.  You won’t get the results and will lose. But there are simple three steps to innovation you should know to help you make it.

I’m always listening out for the different ways people approach innovation and get results.  I subscribe to Inside the Strategy Room, a McKinsey podcast and stumbled across an episode on taking the fear out of innovation.  This post is an extension of that conversation. Let’s dig in.

What are the three steps to innovation?

Innovation is the practice of:

1. Finding the right problem to solve 
2. Identifying the right technology to solve that problem 
3. Fitting the right business model to scale the solution

Re-look at those three steps to innovation.  They are connected. A subtle shift from problem to solution. Although enumerated in a linear fashion, innovation tends to cycle a few times around these steps to get there. 

What are the innovation outputs?

But don’t stop there. What about the outputs at every step of the way? Think about:

1. Find the problem 
2. Identify the solution
3. Fit the business model

You need to be clear on all three of these outputs to deliver true innovation: problem, solution, and business model.  Each output should have standard format and vocabulary for expressing them for all participants in your innovation ecosystem. Simple to say, hard to execute.  

What are the innovation practices?

Lastly, let’s focus on the innovation practices. This is the hard part. The practices differentiates good from great innovations:

1. Find the problem
2. Identify the solution
3. Fit the business model

How do you find problems, identify solutions, and fit them into business models that work .  This takes both experience and expertise doing innovation. Getting results and learning from them. Really doing the do, where practice makes progress.  Every person, team, company, brand, or organization, does this differently. Driven by culture, access to talent, and leadership. And this is where innovation happens.

Just be clear on where your strengths and weaknesses lie today.  Leverage strengths now and improve weaknesses over time. 

Why what we make matters

Before I leave, the presenters on the podcast said something else about innovation that resonated with me: 

• We make originals so that we don’t go creatively bankrupt
• We make sequels so that we don’t go commercially bankrupt

So we need to do both.  However like any industry, sequels/duplicates/reruns are common, some truly exceptional.  But originals are timeless classic.  Don’t be fooled. They are not the same.

Innovation is about improvement and tends to fall in the sequels category.  Innovation is about percentage gains. True originals are inventions.  They require different approaches that result in new business models, new technologies, and new problems to solve.  Inventions are moonshot gains. So when defining success with your teams, with your three steps to innovation, consider which parts above are relevant for you.

The promise of automation is to lighten your current load.  To give you more time to focus on the things that matter most.  However, you have to give up precious time now to get more time later.  For already time poor, busy people, that’s just too much for them to automate today. 

The tomorrow never comes syndrome is everywhere.  For companies, we see them tripping over short term revenue wants when struggling to meet long term value needs.  Or at home, sacrificing retirement investments to literally survive today.  

But you have to make a call. And it’s your call.  Do you want to be in the same place next year, or somewhere else?  If the latter, then invest the time.  Automation is supposed to make things better in the long run.  However, we don’t know how much better.  So we hesitate, and many never take that essential first step towards progress.  It’s time to get out of your own way.

Automate today example

I’ve been a long time user of Things.  It’s a task-based tool that runs across all my Apple devices.  I never forget stuff because Things remembers and reminds me.  It’s by task brain. This weekend I got notification that Things had integrated with Apple Shortcuts to better automate tasks.  I was excited at first, and then sighed. But instead of parking the task and kicking that learning downstream, I took the time to educate myself today. 

After a couple of hours of reading and testing, I had converted my micro tasks into macro actions. This equates to a 30 minute saving every day.  That was definitely worth the two hours upfront investment time. I gambled and won.

The automation returns for organisations are literally off the scale.  But you have to give to get. Don’t believe that tomorrow never comes.  It always does.  And when it does, be better than the day before.  Otherwise, what are you doing? 

Following on from my last post, I decided to spend a little more creative time in the metaverse.  Basically, sidestepping all the cryptocurrency noise around the collapse of FTX.

So I read The Metaverse Handbook with a forward from Paris Hilton.  Short story short, the metaverse is gathering momentum, shifting mindsets, and becoming a movement for the masses. But it has a ways to go.  The executable strategy for many is very much sucking and seeing.

That said, you shouldn’t ignore what’s happening out there.  There are a lot of interesting areas to discover.  Let’s take a look, shall we?

From Web2 to Web3

We all know and understand Web2 platforms; Airbnb, Uber, Netflix, and Facebook. They provided a high level of social engagement with consumers and their platforms captured all the value.  Web3 shifts value creation from corporates to communities so that we the consumers stand to benefit.  And so the Web3 alternatives to Web2 incumbents have started:

• Audius for Spotify
• Arweave for Dropbox
• Mirror for Medium
• ENS Domains for GoDaddy
• …

Of course, these are not as well-known or widespread.  They are experimental with an emerging Web3 marketplace.  So this week I decided to try one out.  I chose Mirror.  A Web3 publishing platform.  

What did I learn?

 After connecting my crypto wallet to Mirror, I was up and running.  My crypto wallet was needed for identification rather than payments.  Mirror is super simple and I was able to draft my first post within seconds.  It’s no WordPress but is both practical and pragmatic.  Refreshingly simple.

The next step is my understanding of the minting process on a decentralized web publishing platform. Wish me luck.

I know when I’m running low on creativity.  I stop writing.  

I’m happiest when I’m learning, and I learn by doing.  By creating stuff.  Tearing things apart and putting them back together, differently.  And then my brain starts popping and I need to get it out, share it, write it up. Otherwise, I would literally explode.  

To be creative, you have to make the space to create. So what slows me down? Life.

Creative Blockers

Having a baby will do it.  Which I did.  You focus your efforts on integrating this bundle of joy into your everyday.  No complaints here, just life!

Leading others will also do it.  You become the oil in the engine with the goal of making others successful.  You create less, and facilitate more. Again, no complaints here, that’s the job.

And then there’s family.  Immediate and extended family drama is part and parcel of living.  It takes energy to deal with the drama that has its peaks and troughs.  So many complaints here, but we all have them.  

Creative Unlocks

Stop making excuses.  Deal with your reality.  Make space to create. Develop creative habits.

I know some folks that create something new everyday. I’m going lower my creative bar a create a few things every week to build up my creative muscle.  I want a sustainable habit and that means making the ask achievable.

So last week I created a new exercise routine. I call it R³S² where:

• S² is Strength and Stretch, every day, for 15 mins
• R³ is Ride, Run, or Row, at least three times per week, for 45 mins

As I get older, it’s important to maintain mobility (S²) using a mixture of free weights, pilates on the reformer, and yoga.  And cardio (R³) for that healthy heart. 

I also created a bunch of Python applications in preparation for a deeper dive into AI/ML operations I’m super interested in.

Finally, I committed to reading a book.

Make the space to create

And so I’ve started to write again.  And if you’re reading this, I hope you get something from it.  

Now go ahead and unlock your creativity.  And please, no excuses. Make the space to create.

I recently listened to a McKinsey podcast that features Miklos talking about the “economy ecosystem“.  It put into words something that has been bugging me for a while now about articulating the true role technology plays within organizations of the future.  Let me unpack that with a little help from Miklós.

I’ve been in the agency technology business for over two decades now.  There has been a lot of change.  Today, as a chief technology officer I spend a lot of time in group therapy with Fortune 500 senior executives in the customer experience space.  The problem is simple to state, harder to solve.  

The Problem

Traditionally businesses tend to compete within sectors.  Health companies care for patients.  Finance companies manage wealth.  Entertainment businesses entertain. You get the picture.  And with over 80 different sectors, the swimlanes were clear and comforting for organizations to win market share and grow revenue.  

However, technology is breaking down these industry vaults making it easier for companies to move between swimlanes to offer consumers multi-sector services.  Amazon started with books and now has many service lines from finance, to films, to food, to computing just to name a few.  I love the way Miklós likened the multi-sector service approach to the rise of supermarkets; now commonplace and widely adopted. Time poor consumers love one stop marketplaces and prefer that over moving between multiple isolated shopping experiences. Can you remember the last time you shopped in several locations to get meats, medicines, fruit and veg, deli goods, alcohol, stationnery, and hardware in a single day? I used to do that growing up, however now I’m part of a loyalty program for a supermarket chain that owns a part me. I chose to major in the supermarket and minor is specialised brands for luxury items.

The Challenge 

The same thing is happening digitally for the ownership of the consumer on a larger scale.  Technology is the dam buster, breaking down the sector silos that both producers and consumers are no longer imprisoned by.  So the race is on to own (a piece of) the consumer and there is everything to play for.  

Organizations can go deep (within a sector) and broad (across sectors).  How deep or broad is an imprortant business decision?  We know how hard it is to create engaging customer journeys within a sector you already excel at with business experience and expertise. However, tomorrow’s winner are getting out of their sector comfort zones to compete broadly across entire, multi-industry customer journey economy ecosystem.

The Approach

This is not easy.  So if vertical customer journey design processes are complicated, horizontal multi-dimensional interconnected ones are highly complex.  Literally, orders of magnitude are harder.  Although not an intractable problem, good strategy is key here.  

So think big, start small to build your economy ecosystem.   Take on board Amazon’s leadership principles, be humble, and be intentional about your capabilities to win.  We have to move past passive know your customer (KYC) discussions to actively owning them by putting theory into practice. Do this with a healthy dose of valuing progress over perfection.  

We waste a lot of clothes. Fast fashion doesn’t help either. New becomes old faster than old becomes new so we end up with too much. That wouldn’t be a problem except for the fact that it’s environmentally expensive to produce clothes and its waste has a significant negative impact on the planet. Here are three disturbing facts:

• 8-10% of global greenhouse gas emissions are from clothes waste sitting in landfills
• It takes 2,700 liters of water to make one cotton shirt (that blows my mind)
• 85% of all textiles go to waste due to fast fashion, shipping, poor manufacturing techniques

Sadly, we don’t really connect with the aforementioned ‘big waste stats’ but the numbers are still frightening. So let’s bring this home. On average we only really wear 50% of our wardrobe. It’s true, we wear what we like. And we don’t prune our wardrobe very often. Instead, we keep stuff and then do periodical clearouts where we rush to donate, pass down, give away, or dump the excess. And guess which one is the easiest to do people!

As a result 3 out of 5 pieces of clothing (environmentally expensive) produced end up in landfills within a few years of being made. And that mountain of textiles you see above, well that takes 200+ years to decompose in landfills, emitting harmful gases throughout.

Some good clothes waste ideas

People are looking to the fashion industry to be held accountable for the full end-to-end life cycle of the clothes they produce. Here are a few good ideas:

• Digital platforms that facilitate the donation of a brand’s dead stock back to new customers.
• Biodegradable products that consumers can send back to brands to turn into compost
• A resell tag embedded with clothing where the owners simply scan the QR code and it’s advertised for reselling across major platforms such as Facebook and Instagram.

Good solutions for the problems we have created, but at least its progress. We can definitely do more.

I think about food a lot. Then I stumbled across this amazing WSJ podcast featuring the renowned food expert Emily Broad Lieb. She shares some seriously disturbing facts about food waste:

• 330 billion pounds of food waste hits US landfills every year
• 10% of greenhouse gas emissions are from food waste rotting in landfills
• In the US, up to 80% of water is used by agriculture to grow food, and 20% of that is wasted. 
• Globally, 35% of the food we produce is wasted 

That’s a lot of waste. I loved the way Emily humanizes these facts. Say tomorrow you go food shopping and fill three bags. As you leave the store you throw one of those shopping bags directly into the trash. It’s going to end up in there anywhere, so why not just cut to the chase. Welcome to the food waste problem.

More problems

Food donation is not easy. Restarants, food retailers and manufacturers have plenty of excess food (supply) and their are lots of food-insecure Americans (demand). However, we cannot feed hungry Americans. If donation were easy, then there is enough food waste in the US to feed every hungry American. Instead, it’s easier toss the food into the trash, which ends up generating greenhouse gases that damages our planet whilst leaving Americans hungry.

And then there is the best before eat (BBE) label on food. In the early days, BBE was used as an indicator of food quality and freshness. However, over time we have come to use it as a safety date. If these cookies as past their BBE date, will it harm me? That’s was never the intent behind BBE. Instead, BBE signals that these cookies are going to taste a little stale. Fun fact is that very few foods will put us at risk when they pass their BBE date. But we are where we are. Emily is pushing for two food label dates: BBE (quality and freshness) and Safety. That’s smart.

What about you

Back to the statistics. Personally, they are quite hard to read. But guess what, the average person, you, will read them, agree it’s bad, but take zero action to improve them. Why? Because we’re human. Hyperlocal, selfish, financial motivated in our decision making. The decisions we make tend to have a (hopefully) positive immediate and tangible impact on our close family and friends. Seldom are our decisions driving big global agendas.

However, if someone could show consumers that by reducing their food waste it would save them $1,500 per year then that is more likely to lead to a sustainable behavioral change than simply learning that 10% of harmful methane is from food rotting in landfills. And if we went one step further to help them do this, then that would truly be making it real.

Some solutions

There are many innovations to address food waste. Indusry award shows have entries where:

• A freshness system that educates people on how best to group fruits and vegetables with a similar maturity timeline. This can be used within the home and more importantly by grocery stores to keep food fresher for longer
• Composting home devices that turn food waster in a soil and/or biodegradable substances that can be recycled
• Recycling the off cuts from fruits that manufacturers can use to create clothing from, thereby achieving full circularity
• Labelling system that highlights which items are new vs old within your fridge

So, all great ideas and hopefully something we can integrate into our everyday. But food waste remains a problem. Keep an eye on what you waste. It doesn’t have to be 1 out of 3 bags of shopping.

https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/wsj-the-future-of-everything