Cleve Gibbon

I’m a big fan of Peter Diamandis’s 6D framework used to describe the exponential growth and impact of emerging technologies.  It depicts how technology moves from ’emerging’ to ’emerged’.

The rate of technological change starts with digital and moves deceptively slowly under the radar until its true disruptive impact becomes clear to the few. Once established, the technology dramatically accelerates along an exponential growth path getting cheaper (demonetized), smaller (dematerialized), and accessible (democratized) to the masses. Think iPhones, 5G, the Internet, and now AI.

Singularity University

Back in May 2017, I spent a week at NASA with 30 other business and technology leaders, many of which oversee $1 billion revenue companies.  Peter Diamandis ran a series of future-forward technology lectures as part of his Singularity University program to share the collective current state, provoke discussions with divergent audiences, to change our collective thinking.  He succeeded. 

Now AI was high up on the agenda.  We had luminaries such as Ray Kurzweil sharing his predictions on the future of human-machine integration. 

6D Framework for AI

Now let’s position AI within that 6D framework.  It’s literally been 6 years since I attended Singularity University and our 2017 AI predictions are bang on target.

AI used to be costly, but now it’s more affordable. Smaller versions of huge language models focus on specific problems, and we’re seeing these models targeting web and mobile devices. And of course, everyone has access to AI now.

Every day, we humans are adapting to AI. Governments and corporates alike are navigating the challenges of ethical, responsible, and unbiased solutions as part of creating an acceptable AI code of conduct. Nobody wants an existential crisis.

And finally, talent. Augmented humans, or people comfortable with AI, have an advantage. The workforce is changing fast, especially for non-augmented individuals. Companies are proactively replacing future roles with AI solutions, both led and managed by experienced, AI-adept individuals. Nobody knows what the future talent mix will be, but it will be different.

Wrapping up, that 6D framework shows us that AI is no longer a technology of the future; it’s here now. So, what will you do with it?

Artificial Intelligence and Intelligent Automation (AiA) are connected by intelligence.  And it’s no coincidence.  

(Intelligent) Automation

The corporate ask of automation remains the same; do more with less.  Because time is money. Automation is an efficiency play to do things right. Map out the processes that people follow to get things done. Then, start automating the simple tasks to free up increasing amounts of time to do things better suited for humans.  

What we really want is for people to adopt more automation, adapt their current ways of working, to ultimately readily embrace machines as part of their everyday.  Let’s be clear, augmented humans are (going to be) more productive than non-augmented ones.  The future of work is less about (wo)man being replaced by machines, but more about augmented humans displacing non-augmented ones.  This is why workers that ignore what’s happening today do so that their risk, and will more likely end up on the wrong side of the change equation.  

Automation doesn’t create much.  It optimizes a lot.  Intelligent automation uses AI to learn how to automate repetitive and routine tasks.  

Artificial (Intelligence)

AI is the technology that enables machines to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence.  AI is an effectiveness play to do the right things. Machines run algorithms that analyze data, find patterns in it, and make predictions off it.  Today, AI makes routine predictions that need humans to make those last-mile decisions.  You must’ve terms like keeping the human in the loop. Humans still provide the necessary guardrails on decision-making and learning goals to continuously progress machines gain more and more human intelligence.  

However, machines are learning faster than humans in specific contexts.  Once trained, AI required less data, in new contexts, to make accurate predictions.  AI is accelerating toward machine intelligence.

Smarter Children

So, what if as a parent you knew that your child was going to be so much smarter than you ever could be? Not only that but your child’s intelligence could potentially periodically double ad infinitum.   What would you do?  And how would you do it? 

As a civilization, we have struggled to manage the human race with many amazing leaps and near-disastrous events along the way.  We are adding machines into the mix and are re-writing new rules of engagement.  I hope we do better than the Titans and Olympians, where Zeus and his siblings overthrew their parents. Humans are not Titans, and machines are not Olympians. However, we are going to have to work hard to co-exist and deftly sidestep the fall of the Titans (read as humanity)!

Over the last couple of years, the rise of AI has been insane. Most definitely within the tech and data world, but more importantly now by users. So let’s be clear, AI is out there. Accessible. Available. Always on.

Before, AI was lurking beneath the surface. Working behind the scenes supercharging the business platforms that platform businesses use to:

• Spotify; better matches listeners with artists
• Airbnb; better find the best places to stay
• Uber; better get you to where you need to be
• Netflix; better know what to watch next
• Amazon; better suggest what to buy

Because with AI we can have better business outcomes. But what accelerated things so dramatically, and so publicly. Well, the entire contents of the internet were compressed into an accessible, available, always-on service that you can have a conversation with it. We call this ChatGPT and it marks the arrival of AI for the masses. The game has changed forever.

So, over the last couple of years I’ve been grappling with the true disruptive impact AI will have on business. And in April 2023 I graduated from Oxford University with a Diploma in AI for Business. The timing could not have been better. I have so much to be thankful for and people to thank.

So I’m going to do just that by gently unpacking AI. I’m going to cut through the hype, and add back some context, and have some fun with the rise of AI! But to kick off the thanks, first to the wicked smart AI for Business professors at Oxford University, and most importantly to my wife for giving me to space to grow. Thank you all!

A lot of people do not trust AI.  Sentient machines will eventually wipe out the human race if left unchecked. We’ve all watched Terminator and the birth of SkyNet.

Today, scientists and technologists disrupt at pace.  This is progress.  It’s great. However, AI requires a bit more thought given the scale and impact it is having on decisions we are asking it to make on behalf of humans.  This is important.  

A Responsibility AI awakening

I recently listened to a podcast from the lead scientist accredited with the first commercial facial recognition system back in 1994.  An amazing technological breakthrough. Now fast forward to 2011 and that very same lead scientist is stepping back to warn us of the impact of what he unleashed within the world.  He warns us of the ethics and responsibilities of AI.  What changed here?

As it turns out, many different yet interrelated things change. Compute power increased. Data became massively accessible to the masses. Back in 1994 social media wasn’t a thing.  So, for facial recognition to be useful, you needed a decent database of digitized faces to look up. That didn’t exist or wasn’t readily accessible.  Today, your average coder can scrap our favorite social platforms and build that semi-decent facial database.  Next download open-source facial software, connect to widely available cameras, and start identifying people in their local neighbourhood, school, workplace, without consent.  Left unchecked, this is a concerning future.

Joseph Atick recognized this and started to lobby for the responsible use of AI four years after his initial breakthrough. We have to get ahead of the technology.  Raise awareness and alert people about the ethical impact of technological breakthroughs.  What do they mean and how could they potentially change societal norms?

Today, facial recognition systems are the primary mechanism for unlocking our phones.  It’s a widely accepted technology gatekeeper to our most personal information.  Standard consumer ware.

Do the ‘extra’ work

I’ve designed, built, and successfully deployed many websites of varying shapes, sizes, and scales.  I’ve also got it wrong many times.  My aha learning moment was that the go-live launch day is urgent, but operational adoption of any web platform is important.  Long-term value creation means you never lose sight of tomorrow’s importance whilst dealing with today’s urgent. 

So for deploying websites, the finish line is at least 90 days past go-live. Success is the operational adoption of technology by its target users. Execution is merely right to left planning from there.  In doing so, we prioritize people and processes ahead of products and platforms.  It is even more important to take a similar approach when deploying emerging AI breakthroughs into the world.  However, the timelines are longer and the stakes are much higher than websites.  

Consider the AI responsibilities that you are accountable for. Give yourself a timeline of at least 9 years after your major technological breakthrough.  What do you anticipate the environmental, societal, and human impacts to be? Then educate us.  Raise alarm bells. Be honest.  Do the extra work.  Don’t just blindly revel in the urgency of the breakthrough.  That’s a short term rush. Play devil’s advocate. Seek to understand what is truly important.

Congratulations on your breakthrough and thank you for owning the responsibility that comes with it. Giving birth is hard, but raising a child, well, that’s a whole other level of responsibility.